In recent years, the domestic fuel ethanol market has continued to show a trend of simultaneous contraction in supply and demand, and the industry is entering a critical stage of in-depth adjustment and transformation. The interplay of multiple factors has not only reshaped the current market pattern, but also exerted a profound impact on the future development path of the industry.

From the perspective of industry operation logic, the contraction trend at both ends of supply and demand is not a short-term market fluctuation, but a structural reflection of the industry's development to a certain stage. On the supply side, the industry's production capacity is undergoing continuous optimization and integration, with some production capacity gradually withdrawing from the market. The regional concentration characteristics of production capacity layout remain prominent, and the industrial status of the production area centered on Northeast China has been further consolidated. At the same time, fluctuations in raw material costs have always been a key variable affecting the industry's supply capacity. The upward pressure on raw material prices in domestic core production areas continues to be transmitted to the production link, which not only intensifies the profitability challenges of enterprises, but also promotes the industry to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity and develop in the direction of scale and intensification.

Changes on the demand side have become an important force driving industrial adjustment. With the rapid development of the new energy industry, the consumption pattern of traditional refined oil has changed, which in turn has led to a decline in the demand for ethanol gasoline, and the consumption of fuel ethanol as a blending component has also been affected accordingly. In addition, the structural characteristics of the downstream consumer market have become increasingly prominent. The procurement demand of core consumer groups dominates the market trend, while some small and medium-sized consumer entities have turned to alternative raw materials for cost control purposes, which has further intensified the contraction pressure on the demand side and maintained a high level of market consumption concentration.

Looking forward to the coming period, the adjustment trend of the domestic fuel ethanol market will continue, and the industry's development will show distinct structural optimization characteristics. From the supply side, the pace of capacity integration will not slow down, the total industrial capacity will continue to shrink, and surviving enterprises will pay more attention to improving capacity utilization and optimizing production efficiency. At the same time, relying on the resource advantages of the core production area in Northeast China, they will strengthen the stability of the supply chain. The optimization of raw material structure will also become an important direction for the industry to break through. Under the constraints of food security, the exploration and breakthrough of domestic non-grain raw material paths will be gradually promoted, helping to alleviate the pressure of raw material costs and drive the industry towards green and sustainable transformation.

On the demand side, the total domestic market consumption is expected to maintain a slight adjustment trend, and the concentration characteristics of the consumption structure will continue. The procurement demand of domestic core main units such as PetroChina and Sinopec remains a key force supporting the stable operation of the market. At the same time, the expansion of industry demand scenarios is worthy of expectation. Under the guidance of the "dual carbon" strategy, the attribute of fuel ethanol as a clean and renewable energy has become increasingly prominent. In addition to the traditional gasoline blending field, its application exploration in emerging fields such as domestic aviation fuel and chemical raw material substitution is expected to be gradually implemented, opening up new space for the growth of industry demand.

In terms of price trends, the future price of fuel ethanol will continue to be dominated by raw material costs, showing characteristics of linkage with the raw material market. In the short term, market prices may experience periodic fluctuations affected by factors such as news and order execution rhythm, and the timeliness of price transmission will be constrained by multiple factors including downstream procurement rhythm and enterprise execution intensity. In the long term, as the industry's supply and demand pattern tends to stabilize, the raw material structure continues to optimize, and green policies such as the carbon trading mechanism are gradually implemented, the value of fuel ethanol will become more prominent, the range of price fluctuations is expected to narrow gradually, and the stability of industry profitability will be improved.

Overall, the fuel ethanol industry is in a critical period of transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement". In the short term, it faces the dual challenges of supply-demand contraction and cost pressure; in the long term, it is expected to achieve high-quality development through structural optimization, technological breakthroughs and scenario expansion. In the future, only by adapting to the industrial development trend, focusing on enhancing core competitiveness, and actively exploring green and low-carbon development paths can enterprises in the industry seize opportunities in the industrial adjustment and achieve sustainable development.